Danish-led research initiative to forecast ice-free Arctic summers

Oslo, June 28 (IANS) A new Danish-led research initiative, IcyAlert, has been launched with the goal of developing an advanced forecasting system capable of predicting when the Arctic will experience ice-free summers, a scenario that could occur as early as the 2030s.

The project, led by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), is scheduled to run through 2031, seeks to provide early warnings about the timing and global consequences of an ice-free Arctic, which experts warn could trigger intensified heatwaves, stronger storms, and severe disruptions to global weather patterns, ecosystems, and fisheries.

"Ice-free summers in the Arctic are no longer a distant possibility. This is a scenario that could occur before the global temperature rises by 2 degrees Celsius," said Tian Tian, project leader from the National Centre for Climate Research at the DMI.

Tian emphasised that Arctic sea ice plays a crucial role in regulating the Earth's climate systems, and its disappearance could dramatically amplify extreme weather events far beyond the polar region, reports Xinhua news agency.

The IcyAlert project unites leading experts from DMI, the Technical University of Denmark, and the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium. By utilising artificial intelligence, advanced climate modelling, and causal analysis, the team aims to produce both short-term and long-term forecasts of ice-free Arctic conditions and their global impacts.

The first forecasts are expected to be released by 2028.

Many lines of research at the DMI are centred around the Arctic, which is also responsible for forecasting the weather, ocean, ice and wave conditions for Greenland, and thus runs numerical weather, ocean-ice and wave prediction models for Greenland and provides official forecasts. DMI participates in a number of climate studies in the Arctic, including coupled atmosphere-ice sheet modelling as well as ocean and sea ice studies with a focus on Greenland fjords, the surrounding waters and the Arctic Ocean.

--IANS

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