Nigel Farage's Reform would be top party in general election, grim poll shows

Grim polling shows Reform UK would win the most seats if a general election happened now - but would need to find a coalition partner.

Nigel Farage and co would secure 271 MPs, analysists at YouGov estimated after a mega-poll of 11,500 voters. Labour's 411 would crumble to just 178, the figures suggest, while the Tories would find themselves in fourth spot behind the Lib Dems.

It comes as Labour steps up its attacks on Mr Farage, who was this week accused of betraying workers by plotting a 'sweetheart deal' with overseas billionaires that would cost billions.

Kemi Badenoch would oversee the Conservatives picking up just 46 seats, while Sir Ed Davey would celebrate an extra nine MPs and a record total of 81.

The Green Party and Plaid Cymru would each gain three seats, giving them seven in the Commons. It would mean a coalition government would need to be formed, as no single party would have the 325 seats needed to govern alone.

Even going into partnership with the Tories would not be enough, with another eight MPs needed to form a "rainbow coalition" with three or more parties.

READ MORE: Angela Rayner brutally savages Nigel Farage's 'sweetheart deal' with billionaires

In more bad news for Keir Starmer, the SNP would go back to being Scotland's biggest party with 38 seats - a rise of 29. YouGov said: "Reform's meteoric rise to becoming comfortably the largest party in a hung parliament is driven by impressive performances right across the country - including in Scotland."

The poll had Reform on 26% of the overall vote, ahead of Labour on 23%. The Tories would pick up 18%, it is estimated, and teh Lib Dems 15%. The Green Party would also enjoy a bump, rising to 11%.

YouGov's Patrick English wrote: "According to our central projection, no realistic two-party government or coalition would reach the 326 seats required for a mathematical House of Commons majority. Combining the Reform and Conservative total figures leaves us at a total of 317 – the same number of seats which the Conservatives alone won under Theresa May back in 2017.

"Back then, the Conservatives relied on a confidence and supply arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party in order to govern. In our central projection, a Reform-Conservative coalition would need to do something similar."

The polling suggests Reform would become the largest party in the East Midlands, East of England, North East, South East, Wales, West Midlands, and Yorkshire and the Humber. It would also be tied with Labour in the North West.

It suggests Labour would lose 194 seats to Mr Farage's party, as well as 27 to the SNP, six to the Tories, three to the Greens, three to Plaid and one to the Lib Dems.

Deputy PM Angela Rayner and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper would be among the casualties, YouGov said.

In recent weeks Labour has stepped up its attacks on Reform. At PMQs on Wednesday Ms Rayner took a brutal swipe at Nigel Farage's botched "sweetheart deal" with overseas billionaires.

The deputy Prime Minister lashed out at the Reform leader's 'Britannia Card' plan, whichexperts say will give a £34billion "bonanza" to super-rich foreign tycoons. Ms Rayner said she agreed that this was a "betrayal" of working people - and claimed "the mask has slipped". She made the remarks after Mr Farage was mocked by Labour backbencher Kanishka Narayan.

He asked the deputy PM: "The member for Clacton (Mr Farage) puts a singular burning injustice first - the plight of overseas billionaires. Does the Deputy Prime Minister agree with his priority or with me, that the reform UK doing sweetheart deals with the super rich is a betrayal of British working people?"

The Reform leader wants wealthy tycoons from overseas to pay a one-off fee of £250,000 in exchange for a string of tax breaks. But experts warn it could wipe a massive £34billion from tax revenues and give a massive tax windfall to overseas billionaires.

Ms Rayner responded: "My honourable friend is absolutely right, the mask has slipped again this week.

"The honourable member for Clacton (Mr Farage) demands billions more in unfunded tax cuts for the very richest while he marches through the lobby in the House of Commons to vote against sick pay for the lowest earners.

"We know who will pay Reform tax breaks, Mr. Speaker, for overseas billionaires - tax hikes on working people and patients being charged to see their doctor. Labour won't let that happen."

Earlier this week Mr Farage said he was "not clever enough" to answer questions about the hit to the UK's economy when challenged about the impact. He proposes creating a 'Britannia Card', which would see those who pay up offered a 10-year renewable residence permit and shielded from UK tax on their overseas income.

They will also be spared having to pay inheritance tax. The "Robin Hood" tax would see revenues distributed between the 10% lowest earners.

But analysis from the Tax Policy Associates found Mr Farage and co will offer a "much more generous regime for the very wealthy" than the Tories did. It said there would be "no wider economic benefit" from the windfall, which would be enjoyed by "a relatively small number of very wealthy people".

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